Bayes' Theorem Application

Medium

probability

A disease affects 1% of a population. A test for the disease has a 95% true positive rate and a 5% false positive rate. If a random person tests positive, what is the approximate probability they actually have the disease?

Multiple Choice

95% — the test is 95% accurate About 16% — applying Bayes' theorem with the base rate About 50% — it's either they have it or they don't 1% — the base rate doesn't change

Correct!

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